Early Adolescents' Expectations about Future Sexual Behavior and Sexual Initiation One Year Later

Background: Expectations about future sexual activity are related to young adolescents’ sexual debut, but how expectations may change over time is less clear. Little is known about the impact of expectations in young adolescents on the likelihood of sexual debut within one year.

Objectives: To determine how expectations about future sexual activity and related factors predict expectations and sexual onset one year later, among urban public school students.

Methods: During 2005-2009, 2,471 sixth through eighth grade students completed two consecutive annual surveys (“T1,” “T2”). We created three groups, students who: never had sex (i.e., intercourse) and did not anticipate sex in the next six months (“delayers”); never had sex but expected to within six months (“anticipators”); and ever had sex (“experienced”). We used generalized multinomial logistic regression analysis to examine how T1 expectation and reporting a boy/girlfriend affected the odds of becoming experienced by T2.

Results: Most T1 delayers (76%) remained delayers at T2; however, 15% became anticipators and 9% experienced. Almost half of T1 anticipators (46%) reverted to delayer at T2, while 29% remained anticipators and 25% became experienced. Having a boy/girlfriend at T1 increased the odds of being an anticipator or being experienced versus being a delayer at T2 (ORs=1.46, 4.30, respectively; both p<.0005). Among those reporting a boy/girlfriend at T1, 20% of delayers and 48% of anticipators were experienced at T2.

Conclusions: Adolescents who expected to have sex were more likely to become experienced than adolescents without this expectation, especially if they had a boyfriend or girlfriend. These variables were independently related to onset of sexual activity, suggesting that openness to the possibility and opportunity both play a role in sexual onset.

Implications for Programs, Policy, and Research: Attitudes, perceptions, and involvement in romantic relationships are important in shaping young adolescents’ developing behavioral practices. Interventions must work to reduce sexual risk within the context of early romantic relationships.