KEYWORDS:
Outbreak, Stockpile, Risk, Costs

BACKGROUND:
As the eradication of polio nears, research is being directed towards optimal strategies to discontinue polio vaccination post-eradication. Crucial for the success of various proposed strategies is the development of a vaccine stockpile and a contingency plan for responding to a polio outbreak.

OBJECTIVE(S):
The purpose of this analysis is to evaluate the risk of a polio outbreak under various strategies and estimate the costs of responding to a polio outbreak.

METHOD(S):
Using decision analysis, various post-eradication outbreak scenarios will be modeled and the cost and impact of the outbreak estimated.

RESULT(S):
Initial results indicate that the size of the stockpile depends on coverage rates, surveillance quality, and the current vaccine production capacity. In addition, a critical factor to the success of containing an outbreak depends on the infrastructure to deliver the vaccine.

CONCLUSIONS(S):
Estimating the costs of a contingency plan involves risk assessment and includes more than the costs of creating a stockpile.

LEARNING OBJECTIVES:
Audience should gain a better understanding of the methodological approach to the evaluation of the interrelationship between the risk of an outbreak post-eradication for various stopping immunization strategies and the level of preparedness.